Section 2

RISK ANALYSIS

2.1     Risk Analysis Definition

 

          Risk Analysis is the assessment of potential risk a municipality may suffer in an emergency situation in any given area of the community.

 

 

2.2     Technique of Assessment

 

          Many variables are considered during the risk assessment process.

 

          -         Potential consequences

          -         Probability of a given event

          -         Current level of preparedness

          -         Level of staff competency

          -         Geographic location with respect to water, prevailing winds, etc.

          -         Possible scenarios

 

 

2.3     Reason for a Risk Analysis

 

          Essentially the reason for a risk analysis is to evaluate and take inventory of the actual or perceived threats in the Municipality.  This process results in a list of events that an effective Emergency Management Response Plan should address.  Due to the fact virtually all emergencies require an Operations Centre, Site Coordinator and Responders in the field, specific examples are of limited value.

 

 


2.4     Potential Threats

 

          Recognizing this is not a specific list recorded in this section, it is intended to provide direction for the planning process. The Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act specifically outline provisions for the protection of information which if disclosed “could reasonably be expected to prejudice the defence of Canada or of any foreign state allies or associated with Canada or be injurious to the detection, prevention or suppression of espionage, sabotage, or terrorism” (Section 2.1 (4), Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act). This section outlines the Potential Risk but in no great detail. Detailed Analysis of Risk and Critical Infrastructure for security, because of volume will be kept in the Sarnia Emergency Operations Room as Operational Policies / Guides & Resources.  No Hazard identification and risk assessment, or the information of critical infrastructure, can be released to the public without the prior consent of the municipal council. Sarnia City Council has the discretion of directing the release of information but must have regard for both national and local security concerns.

 

General Hazards Checklist

 

Definitions:

 

Hazard:      An event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss.

 

Likely:        The listed hazard has occurred in recent memory and is likely to occur again.

 

Possible:   The listed hazard has not occurred in recent memory, but could occur based on prior incidence or “expert” assessment (e.g., a nuclear facility, terrorism, an earthquake).

 

Unlikely:    The hazard has never occurred and likely will not occur in the foreseeable future (e.g. a mine emergency where there is no mine).

 


The focus of this plan is on the following threats, which are marked as likely:

 

Natural Events:

2.1NATURAL HAZARD

LIKELY

POSSIBLE

UNLIKELY

Agriculture & Food Emergencies

 

 

X

Drought

 

 

X

Earthquakes

 

 

X

Epidemics & Human Health Emergencies

 

X

 

Erosion

 

X

 

Extreme Heat / Cold

X

 

 

Fires (Forest, Grass, or Wild land - Urban

 

X

 

Fog

X

 

 

Floods

X

 

 

Hailstorms

X

 

 

Hurricanes

 

 

X

Ice / Sleet Storms

X

 

 

Landslides / Mudslides

 

 

X

Lightning Storms

X

 

 

Seiche (pronounced “saysh”) (lake wide displacements of water by atmospheric pressure, seismic disturbances, winds, tides or waves.)

 

X

 

Snowstorms / Blizzards

X

 

 

Subsidence (Land Sinking)

 

X

 

Tornadoes

X

 

 

Tsunami (Huge Wave by underwater earthquake)

 

 

X

Waterspouts

X

 

 

Windstorms

X

 

 

 


Technological Events:

2.2TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARD

LIKELY

POSSIBLE

UNLIKELY

Building / Structural Collapse

    X

 

 

Critical Infrastructure Failures (Hospitals, Bridges, Railway Tunnel, Water, Telephone failures.

    X

 

 

Dam Failures

 

 

X

Energy Emergencies Hydro failures, fuel failures.

X

 

 

Explosions / Fires

X

 

 

Hazardous Materials – Fixed Site

X

 

 

Hazardous Material - Mobile

X

 

 

Mine Emergencies (Salt Mines)(Caverns)

 

X

 

Nuclear Facility Emergencies

 

 

X

Oil / Gas Well Emergencies

 

 

X

Petroleum / Gas / Chemical Plant Emergencies

X

 

 

Petroleum / Gas Pipelines Emergencies

X

 

 

Transportation Accidents (passenger)(road, rail, air, marine)

X

 

 

Transportation Incidents (road, rail, air, marine)

X

 

 

Space Object Crash

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

 


Human Events:

2.3HUMAN HAZARD

LIKELY

POSSIBLE

UNLIKELY

Civil Disorder

X

 

 

Sabotage

X

 

 

Special Events (Canada Day, Bay Fest, Air Show, Highland Games Etc.)

X

 

 

Terrorism

X

 

 

War and International Emergencies

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Local Hazards:

 

q      _____________________               _____                   _____                   ______

q      _____________________               _____                   _____                   ______

 

TOTAL HAZARDS:

 

25

7

9

 

LIKELY       

POSSIBLE

UNLIKELY

 


 

2.5     Additional Information Sections

 

          The following information in Sections 2.6 to 2.17 is presented for the benefit of out-of-town agencies, organizations or personnel who may be requested to provide assistance in the event of an emergency.

 

 

2.6     Population

 

          The City of Sarnia with a population of approximately 73,000 is situated at the junction of the St. Clair River and Lake Huron.  It is serviced by road, rail, air and water. According to the 2006 Census of population, there were 31,691 private dwellings within Sarnia. The population blooms during day time and early evening hours because the city host the vast majority of shopping, banking, working population for the entire County of Lambton.

 

          Main road access is via Highways:

 

          -       #402 from London

          -       #22 from London

          -       Blue water Bridge from the State of Michigan

          -       #40 from the south

          -       Lambton Road #7 from the northeast

 

          Trucking with cargoes of petrochemical products is extremely heavy on highways throughout Lambton County, particularly on Highways #402,  #40 and #22 to London.

 

 

27      Rail Lines and Air Service

 

          Rail lines serving Sarnia are the CNR from London and points east, and the CSXT from the south.  VIA Rail and CNR provide passenger and freight traffic while the CSXT operate tank car traffic in and out of the petrochemical complex.  Air service is provided by Air Canada Jazz, Huron Aviation Inc and Huron Flight Centre Inc.

 

2.8     Waterways

 

          From approximately April 1st to December 1st, the St. Clair River (Sarnia's Western boundary) is one of the busiest waterways in the world.  Great Lakes vessels and ocean vessels move along the river with cargo of every type.  Vessels stop at Sarnia to refuel and take on petrochemical and agricultural products.  Directly north of the City sits Lake Huron, the second largest fresh water lake in Canada.  Pleasure craft abound in the area.

 

 

2.9     Health Care

 

          Two hospitals serve the City:

 

        -        Bluewater Health Mitton St Site Hospital, located at 229 North Mitton Street still provides housing for some administrative offices and for third East patients.

          -       Bluewater Health Norman St Site Hospital at 89 Norman Street  This facility is composed of three adjoining buildings (1) the Russel Building (2) The London Rd Building and (3) the Norman Building        

 

          Lambton County EMS Ambulance Service provides coverage for the Sarnia area.  Various walk-in clinics are also located within the City.

 

          The Medical Officer of Health and the main offices of the Community Health Services Department are located at 160 Exmouth Street. There is also an Advanced Treatment Centre at the Bluewater Health Norman St.

 

 

2.10   Utilities

          Utilities are provided by:

          -     Blue Water Power (Hydro

          -     Union Gas Limited / Union Energy

-        The City of Sarnia which is responsible for the water distribution / sewer lines in the Municipality.

-        Hydro One provides power to a number of Industries in the area.

 

 

2.11   Communications

 

          Communications are extensive in the area.  Bell provides telephone service from out of town sources to chemical plants, Police Service, weather office, etc.  A radio link connects chemical plants in the petrochemical complex to Sarnia Central Communications Centre.


 

2.12   Amateur Radio

 

          An Amateur Radio Net, known as Communications Ontario (COMSONT NET), operates on a regular basis throughout Ontario and is available for emergency purposes.  Contact with Ottawa Emergency Planning Canada and the Emergency Planning Officers in the various areas is maintained.  The Province of Ontario Provincial Operations Centre will join the COMSONT network if needed during the course of the emergency.  The Emergency Operations Control Centre has an Amateur Radio Emergency Service Radio that provides communications with the Sarnia Mobile Command Centre, the Norman Street Site Blue Water Health Hospital and with the City’s Emergency Reception Centre at Lambton College. Numerous additional communications nets are also available. The Sarnia Mobile Command Post Centre has in place Amateur Radio Transceivers, Sarnia CVECO Radio on the Sarnia Police Service Radio Frequency, Fire Service Radio, Police Radio, EMS Radios, Industrial Radios and numerous other services.   Amateur Radio Emergency Services operators are available to the Centre 24 hours a day.

 

 

2.13   Media Coverage

          Radio coverage is provided by:

              -      CHOK 1070 AM / 103.9 FM, The FOX 99.9 FM, K106.3 (Blackburn Radio)

          -       WHLS 1450   (Port Huron AM)

          -       WPHM 1380 (Port Huron AM)

          -       WKSQ 107 (Port Huron FM)

          -       WSMA 1590 (Port Huron AM)

          -       WNFA 88 (Port Huron FM)

          -       CFCO 630 in Chatham

          -       CKLW 800 in Windsor

           -      CKCI 103.3 FM Points Eagle radio

          -       Other stations in Detroit, Michigan

 

          T.V. is received from:

 

          -       London  (Channel 10)

-        CKLW in Windsor  (Channel 9)

-              CBC Channel 34

          -       CKCO in Kitchener  (Channel 42)

          -       Global T.V. in Toronto  (Channel 29)

          -       Numerous stations from Detroit, Michigan

 

         


          Cable systems service is available, bringing in stations in VHF and UHF channels and Community Channel Cable 6.

              The Emergency Operations Centre also houses a direct link to CHOK 1070

              AM/103.9 FM, CFGX The FOX 99.9 FM, K106.3 (Blackburn Radio)

              for public notification

 

 

2.14   Public Transportation

 

          Public transportation is provided by Sarnia Transit, which consists of twenty-six (26) radio-equipped buses, plus six  (6) Care-A-Van units used to transport the disabled.

 

 

2.15   E.A.R.S.  Emergency Alert Radio System

 

          The City of Sarnia has the ability to locally interrupt The Fox 99.9 FM, K106.3 and CHOK 1070 AM & 103.9 FM Radio Broadcasting to provide notification to the listening area.  The control to activate the system is located in the City of Sarnia's Emergency Operations Centre. (See Sarnia Emergency Management Operational Guides)

 

 

2.16   Cable Television

 

          Currently the area is served with ten (11) Municipal Sirens four (4) in the South end of the City, one (1) in Point Edward, three (3) in the Aamjiwnaang Community and Riverview community of Sarnia, and three (3) in Corunna. The Sirens are tested by the Sarnia Police Service every Monday at 12:30 p.m. and are used for Chemical Emergencies and tornado warnings. (See Sarnia Emergency Management Operational Guides) on Civic Notification Protocol)

 

          The City of Sarnia Emergency Operations Centre, houses a telephone, which has a direct link to the COGECO Cable system.  This link enables notification to cable subscribers in an affected area with both verbal and crawler information, currently on 34 channels. The Sarnia Police Service tests the Emergency Cable TV interruption system, on a regular basis.  (Internal Emergency Operational & Policy Guides) Civic Notification Protocol)

 


 

2.17   Reciprocal Aid Agreements

 

          A Reciprocal Aid Agreement exists between the City of Port Huron, Michigan and the City of Sarnia, dealing with:

 

          -       Fire

          -       Social Services

          -       Operations Departments

          -       Emergency Medical Services

          -       Transit Services

          -       Customs and Immigration

          -       Amateur Radio Emergency Service direct radio link to St. Clair County's E.O.C. in Port Huron, Michigan.

This Emergency Plan also allows the City of Sarnia to establish other reciprocal aid agreements with local school boards, private facilities, municipalities within the County of Lambton (Ontario) and within the St. Clair County (Michigan) as well as with the two aforementioned Counties. Reciprocal aid will be provided based on authorization by the Primary Control Group and / or the Emergency Operations Centre Chair.